Dakota Watson and Anthony Smith are bond portfolio managers for Northern Capital Investment Advisors,
which is based in the U.S. Northern Capital has $2,000 million under management, with S950 million of that in
the bond market. Northern Capital's clients are primarily institutional investors such as insurance companies,
foundations, and endowments. Because most clients insist on a margin over the relevant bond benchmark,
Watson and Smith actively manage their bond portfolios, while at the same time trying to minimize tracking
error.
One of the funds that Northern Capital offers invests in emerging market bonds. An excerpt from its prospectus
reveals the following fund objectives and strategies:
“The fund generates a return by constructing a portfolio using all major fixed-income sectors within the Asian
region (except Japan) with a bias towards non-government bonds. The fund makes opportunistic investments
in both investment grade and high yield bonds. Northern Capital analysts seek those bond issues that are
expected to outperform U.S. bonds with similar credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk-Value is added by
finding those bonds that have been overlooked by other developed world bond funds. The fund favors nondollar, local currency denominated securities to avoid the default risk associated with a lack of hard currency on
the part of issuer."
Although Northern Capital does examine the availability of excess returns in foreign markets by investing
outside the index in these markets, most of its strategies focus on U.S. bonds and spread analysis of them.
Discussing the analysis of spreads in the U.S. bond market, Watson comments on the usefulness of the option
adjusted spread and the swap spread and makes the following statements:
Statement 1: Due to changes in the structure of the primary bond market in the U.S., the option adjusted
spread is increasingly valuable for analyzing the attractiveness of bond investments.
Statement 2: The advantage of the swap spread framework is that investors can compare the relative
attractiveness of fixed-rate and floating-rate bond markets.
Watson's view of the U.S. economy is decidedly bearish. She is concerned that the recent withdrawal of liquidity
from the U.S. financial system will result in a U.S. recession, possibly even a depression. She forecasts that
interest rates in the U.S. will continue to fall as the demand for loanable funds declines with the lack of business
investment. Meanwhile, she believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep short-term rates low in
order to stimulate the economy. Although she sees the level of yields declining, she believes that the spread on
risky securities will increase due to the decline in business prospects. She therefore has reallocated her bond
portfolio away from high-yield bonds and towards investment grade bonds.
Smith is less decided about the economy. However, his trading strategy has been quite successful in the past.
As an example of his strategy, he recently sold a 20-year AA-rated $50,000 Mahan Corporation bond with a
7.75% coupon that he had purchased at par. With the proceeds, he then bought a newly issued A-rated Quincy
Corporation bond that offered an 8.25% coupon. By swapping the first bond for the second bond, he enhanced
his annual income, which he considers quite favorable given the declining yields in the market.
Watson has become quite interested in the mortgage market. With the anticipated decline in interest rates, she
expects that the yields on mortgages will decline. As a result, she has reallocated the portion of Northern
Capital's bond portfolio dedicated to mortgages. She has shifted the holdings from 8.50% coupon mortgages to
7.75% coupon mortgages, reasoning that if interest rates do drop, the lower coupon mortgages will rise in price
more than the higher coupon mortgages. She identifies this trade as a structure trade.
Smith is examining the liquidity of three bonds. Their characteristics are listed in the table below:
Which of the following best describes the relative value analysis used in the Northern Capita! Emerging market
bond fund? It is a: